By Jill Schlesinger
Tribune Media Services
The Federal Reserve recently announced that it would engage in its third round of “quantitative easing” by purchasing $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities to spur economic growth and help reduce unemployment. Whether or not the plan will work is subject to debate. What is not debatable is that the Fed’s action is stirring fears of inflation.
Inflation occurs when the prices of goods and services rise, and, as a result, every dollar you spend in the economy purchases less. The annual rate of inflation over the past 60 years or so has averaged about 3.8 percent annually. That may not sound like much, but consider this: Today you need $8,693.55 in cash to buy what $1,000 could buy in 1952.
Currently, inflation is running well below the long-term average pace. As of August, the government’s measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased only 1.7 percent over the last 12 months (1.9 percent without food or energy costs included). However, the Fed’s strategy to flood the economy with money could eventually unleash inflation in the future, an event against which every retirement investor must guard.
The key is to attempt to grow your portfolio at a quicker pace than the rate of inflation, while staying focused on the total risk level you are willing to assume. Not an easy puzzle to solve! And here’s one more sobering thought: There has not been any single asset that acts as a perfect inflation hedge. The following are the assets most frequently used to protect portfolios against inflation:
Commodities: When inflation rises, the price of commodities like gold, energy, food and raw materials also increases. Therefore, many investors turn to investments in these assets for protection; however, as a former commodities trader, I must warn that this is a volatile asset class that can also stagnate or worse, lose money, over long stretches of time. So investors would be wise to limit commodity exposure to 3-6 percent of the total portfolio value.
Real estate investment trusts (“REITs”): The ultimate “real asset,” REITs tend to perform well during inflationary periods, due to rising property values and rents. But the nation’s housing bubble has cured most of us of the notion that one “can’t lose with real estate.” Real estate prices could stay depressed for a long period of time.
Stocks: Many investors don’t think about stocks as an asset class to combat inflation, but the long-term data show that stocks, especially dividend-producing stocks, tend to perform well in inflationary periods. That said, during short-term inflationary spikes, the stocks can plunge quickly before reverting to the longer-term trend.
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (“TIPS”): Bonds are susceptible to inflation because rising prices can diminish a bond’s fixed-income return. But the U.S. government directly offers investors inflation-indexed bonds, or TIPS, which provide a fixed interest rate above the rate of inflation, as measured by the CPI. Sounds great, right?
Unfortunately, because the expectation of future inflation is currently running high, investors are paying up for TIPS, which has driven the interest rate on these bonds below zero. That’s not a typo: investors are so worried about inflation, they are willing to pay the government now to protect them later. The current pricing of TIPS makes them hard to recommend, even as an “insurance policy” vs. inflation.
International Bonds: One of the dangers of inflation is that it destroys the value of the U.S. dollar. As a result, there is an argument to allocate a portion of a bond portfolio to a small percentage of international bonds, which are denominated in a foreign currency. This is another one of those asset classes that tends to be volatile.
While inflation may be looming, it’s important to underscore that a diversified portfolio, which takes into account your time horizon and risk tolerance, will go a long way toward providing protection. If you are worried about inflation, these other asset classes should be used sparingly to round out your overall allocation.
Jill Schlesinger, CFP, is the Editor-at-Large for www.CBSMoneyWatch.com. She covers the economy, markets, investing or anything else with a dollar sign on her podcast and blog, Jill on Money, as well as on television and radio. She welcomes comments and questions at askjill@moneywatch.com.
This was printed in the February 24, 2013 – March 9, 2013 Edition
